Microsoft has often been lauded for its foresight in the gaming industry, especially concerning its Game Pass subscription service. However, the company missed the mark when it came to evaluating the potential of Larian Studios' Baldur’s Gate 3. This article aims to unpack the details of Microsoft's miscalculation, the game's subsequent rise in popularity, and the consequences of this underestimation for Xbox users.
The Unexpected Rise of Baldur’s Gate 3
The full launch of Baldur’s Gate 3 took place on August 3 and exceeded all expectations. According to SteamDB, the game reached a staggering 875,343 concurrent players, establishing itself as one of the year's most popular titles. Swen Vincke, the founder of Larian Studios, expressed his astonishment, revealing that the studio had initially expected no more than 100,000 players. Even after a month past its release, the game still garners nearly 200,000 concurrent players.
Microsoft’s Initial Stance on Baldur’s Gate 3
Interestingly, an email leak from May 2022 as part of the FTC v. Microsoft case showed that Microsoft had underestimated the game's potential. The company termed it a "second-run Stadia PC RPG." This classification came as part of Microsoft's internal assessment for potential inclusions in its Game Pass subscription service. Notably, while other titles like "Star Wars Jedi: Survivor" and "Dragon Ball: The Breakers" were evaluated based on their "wow factor," Baldur’s Gate 3 was marked as "Hub" and ranked last on the list.
Gap in Major Xbox Releases
The leaked email started with a message from Phil Spencer, Xbox chief, discussing the setback caused by the delayed release of Starfield. Due to this delay and unclear launch timelines for other titles like Redfall and STALKER 2, a considerable gap appeared in Xbox's content portfolio. Spencer deemed this a "failure of our planning and production execution."
Financial Projections and Realities
The internal documents predicted that Larian Studios would expect about $5 million for Baldur’s Gate 3 to be included in the Xbox Game Pass. This number pales in comparison to the $300 million expected partner ask for "Star Wars Jedi: Survivor," termed as a potential "crown jewel" of the service.